Monthly outlook for Conch Key, FL: average high 83.6°, average low 80.8°. That is 1.4° above the climate normal for October. Precipitation is expected on 11 days (about 2.2 inches), against a normal of 8 days and 2.5 inches. The warmest day looks like 6 October (87.1°), the coolest 7 October (76.3°).
83.6°/80.8°
Average high / low
+1.4°
Above normal
11 / 8
Wet days / normal
2.2 in
Precipitation this month
Ten-day blocks vs climate normal
Period
Forecast high
Normal
Difference
6 October – 15 October
84.5°
81.5°
+1.7°
16 October – 25 October
82.1°
80.2°
+1.1°
26 October – 4 November
at normal
79.1°
—
October records over 66 years
86.9°12 October 2023All-time high
63.7°21 October 1989All-time low
Climate normals and records are computed from the nearest reference point — Layton (5 mi).
Wed, 0787° / 76°0.14
87 °
Conch Key, Wednesday, 7 October
Rain. High 87°, low 76°.
Pressure29.88 inHg
Wind9.1 mph SW
Humidity75%
Visibility6.2 mi
Dew point75°
Thu, 0883° / 77°0.09
83 °
Conch Key, Thursday, 8 October
Light rain. High 83°, low 77°.
Pressure29.94 inHg
Wind9.7 mph S
Humidity77%
Visibility5.3 mi
Dew point75°
Fri, 0985° / 80°0.42
85 °
Conch Key, Friday, 9 October
Rain. High 85°, low 80°.
Pressure29.97 inHg
Wind14.3 mph SE
Humidity79%
Visibility6.2 mi
Dew point76°
Sat, 1085° / 82°0.21
85 °
Conch Key, Saturday, 10 October
Light rain. High 85°, low 82°.
Pressure30.00 inHg
Wind18 mph SE
Humidity78%
Visibility5.3 mi
Dew point77°
Sun, 1185° / 83°0.1
85 °
Conch Key, Sunday, 11 October
Light rain. High 85°, low 83°.
Pressure30.03 inHg
Wind18.7 mph SE
Humidity80%
Visibility—
Dew point78°
Mon, 1284° / 83°0.01
84 °
Conch Key, Monday, 12 October
Light rain. High 84°, low 83°.
Pressure29.97 inHg
Wind10.9 mph E
Humidity79%
Visibility—
Dew point76°
Tue, 1383° / 82°0
83 °
Conch Key, Tuesday, 13 October
Clear. High 83°, low 82°.
Pressure29.88 inHg
Wind7.8 mph NW
Humidity76%
Visibility—
Dew point74°
Wed, 1482° / 80°0.12
82 °
Conch Key, Wednesday, 14 October
Light rain. High 82°, low 80°.
Pressure29.85 inHg
Wind9.8 mph NW
Humidity70%
Visibility—
Dew point70°
Thu, 1582° / 80°0.17
82 °
Conch Key, Thursday, 15 October
Light rain. High 82°, low 80°.
Pressure29.88 inHg
Wind16.5 mph E
Humidity73%
Visibility—
Dew point72°
Fri, 1682° / 81°0.22
82 °
Conch Key, Friday, 16 October
Rain. High 82°, low 81°.
Pressure29.85 inHg
Wind15 mph E
Humidity68%
Visibility—
Dew point70°
Sat, 1783° / 81°0.19
83 °
Conch Key, Saturday, 17 October
Light rain. High 83°, low 81°.
Pressure29.85 inHg
Wind13 mph E
Humidity72%
Visibility—
Dew point72°
Sun, 1882° / 82°0.39
82 °
Conch Key, Sunday, 18 October
Rain. High 82°, low 82°.
Pressure29.88 inHg
Wind12.6 mph E
Humidity70%
Visibility—
Dew point71°
Mon, 1982° / 81°0.02
82 °
Conch Key, Monday, 19 October
Light rain. High 82°, low 81°.
Pressure29.91 inHg
Wind4.1 mph N
Humidity71%
Visibility—
Dew point71°
Tue, 2082° / 81°0
82 °
Conch Key, Tuesday, 20 October
Clear. High 82°, low 81°.
Pressure29.91 inHg
Wind4.5 mph NE
Humidity71%
Visibility—
Dew point71°
Wed, 2182° / 81°0.08
82 °
Conch Key, Wednesday, 21 October
Light rain. High 82°, low 81°.
Pressure29.85 inHg
Wind3.4 mph W
Humidity72%
Visibility—
Dew point71°
From day 17 onward the outlook is built from 60-year climate statistics
Thu, 2280° / 77°0.09
80 °
Conch Key, Thursday, 22 October
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high80°
Average low77°
Average precipitation0.09 in
Chance of precipitation42%
Record high83° (2019)
Record low70° (1961)
Fri, 2380° / 77°0.16
80 °
Conch Key, Friday, 23 October
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high80°
Average low77°
Average precipitation0.16 in
Chance of precipitation45%
Record high85° (2019)
Record low71° (1999)
Sat, 2480° / 77°0.14
80 °
Conch Key, Saturday, 24 October
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high80°
Average low77°
Average precipitation0.14 in
Chance of precipitation42%
Record high83° (2017)
Record low70° (1982)
Sun, 2580° / 77°0.1
80 °
Conch Key, Sunday, 25 October
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high80°
Average low77°
Average precipitation0.1 in
Chance of precipitation28%
Record high84° (2019)
Record low67° (2005)
Mon, 2679° / 76°0.15
79 °
Conch Key, Monday, 26 October
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high79°
Average low76°
Average precipitation0.15 in
Chance of precipitation30%
Record high84° (2019)
Record low66° (2005)
Tue, 2780° / 77°0.11
80 °
Conch Key, Tuesday, 27 October
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high80°
Average low77°
Average precipitation0.11 in
Chance of precipitation32%
Record high83° (2019)
Record low69° (2005)
Wed, 2880° / 77°0.08
80 °
Conch Key, Wednesday, 28 October
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high80°
Average low77°
Average precipitation0.08 in
Chance of precipitation33%
Record high85° (2021)
Record low65° (2008)
Thu, 2979° / 76°0.09
79 °
Conch Key, Thursday, 29 October
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high79°
Average low76°
Average precipitation0.09 in
Chance of precipitation37%
Record high83° (2019)
Record low64° (2008)
Fri, 3079° / 76°0.05
79 °
Conch Key, Friday, 30 October
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high79°
Average low76°
Average precipitation0.05 in
Chance of precipitation27%
Record high83° (1993)
Record low66° (2017)
Sat, 3179° / 76°0.09
79 °
Conch Key, Saturday, 31 October
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high79°
Average low76°
Average precipitation0.09 in
Chance of precipitation37%
Record high83° (2019)
Record low69° (2017)
Sun, 0179° / 76°0.09
79 °
Conch Key, Sunday, 1 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high79°
Average low76°
Average precipitation0.09 in
Chance of precipitation35%
Record high84° (2019)
Record low63° (1993)
Mon, 0279° / 76°0.1
79 °
Conch Key, Monday, 2 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high79°
Average low76°
Average precipitation0.1 in
Chance of precipitation48%
Record high84° (2019)
Record low62° (2014)
Tue, 0379° / 75°0.09
79 °
Conch Key, Tuesday, 3 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high79°
Average low75°
Average precipitation0.09 in
Chance of precipitation47%
Record high83° (2019)
Record low65° (1966)
Wed, 0479° / 75°0.14
79 °
Conch Key, Wednesday, 4 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high79°
Average low75°
Average precipitation0.14 in
Chance of precipitation45%
Record high83° (2019)
Record low61° (1966)
About the monthly outlook
How accurate is a 30-day forecast?
The first 16 days come from weather models — reliable for the first 3–5 days and progressively less so after that. Days 17 through 30 for Conch Key, FL are built from the climate normal, the 60-year average, so they show typical weather for those dates rather than a specific forecast.
What does "above normal" mean?
We compare the forecast against the climate normal for those exact calendar days, computed from 60 years of observations. The deviation shows how much the coming month differs from a typical one.
Where do the 66-year records come from?
They are real temperature extremes recorded in Conch Key, FL since 1960: the highest and lowest reading for each calendar date, with the year it happened.
How often is it updated?
The forecast portion refreshes every hour; the climate portion is based on long-term data and stays stable.