Monthly outlook for Lake Frederick, VA: average high 66.6°, average low 45.9°. That is 2.8° above the climate normal for October. Precipitation is expected on 2 days (about 0.1 inches), against a normal of 4 days and 1.8 inches. The warmest day looks like 31 October (75.6°), the coolest 22 October (37.9°).
66.6°/45.9°
Average high / low
+2.8°
Above normal
2 / 4
Wet days / normal
0.1 in
Precipitation this month
Ten-day blocks vs climate normal
Period
Forecast high
Normal
Difference
17 October – 26 October
63.6°
62.3°
+0.7°
27 October – 5 November
71.6°
59.9°
+6.5°
6 November – 15 November
at normal
55°
—
October records over 66 years
90.9°2 October 2019All-time high
23.4°30 October 2011All-time low
Climate normals and records are computed from the nearest reference point — Winchester (9 mi).
Sun, 1858° / 39°0
58 °
Lake Frederick, Sunday, 18 October
Clear. High 58°, low 39°.
Pressure30.59 inHg
Wind4.8 mph NE
Humidity43%
Visibility6.2 mi
Dew point30°
Mon, 1966° / 39°0
66 °
Lake Frederick, Monday, 19 October
Clear. High 66°, low 39°.
Pressure30.42 inHg
Wind6.5 mph N
Humidity43%
Visibility6.2 mi
Dew point38°
Tue, 2066° / 45°0
66 °
Lake Frederick, Tuesday, 20 October
Clear. High 66°, low 45°.
Pressure30.33 inHg
Wind8.3 mph N
Humidity52%
Visibility6.2 mi
Dew point43°
Wed, 2161° / 41°0
61 °
Lake Frederick, Wednesday, 21 October
Clear. High 61°, low 41°.
Pressure30.30 inHg
Wind5.1 mph N
Humidity57%
Visibility6.2 mi
Dew point42°
Thu, 2266° / 38°0
66 °
Lake Frederick, Thursday, 22 October
Clear. High 66°, low 38°.
Pressure30.18 inHg
Wind5.8 mph NW
Humidity55%
Visibility—
Dew point40°
Fri, 2364° / 43°0
64 °
Lake Frederick, Friday, 23 October
Overcast. High 64°, low 43°.
Pressure30.24 inHg
Wind7.9 mph NE
Humidity50%
Visibility—
Dew point38°
Sat, 2461° / 39°0
61 °
Lake Frederick, Saturday, 24 October
Clear. High 61°, low 39°.
Pressure30.45 inHg
Wind7.1 mph E
Humidity53%
Visibility—
Dew point36°
Sun, 2563° / 41°0
63 °
Lake Frederick, Sunday, 25 October
Overcast. High 63°, low 41°.
Pressure30.39 inHg
Wind6.2 mph SE
Humidity69%
Visibility—
Dew point43°
Mon, 2673° / 45°0
73 °
Lake Frederick, Monday, 26 October
Mostly clear. High 73°, low 45°.
Pressure30.21 inHg
Wind5.1 mph SW
Humidity50%
Visibility—
Dew point42°
Tue, 2769° / 49°0
69 °
Lake Frederick, Tuesday, 27 October
Clear. High 69°, low 49°.
Pressure30.30 inHg
Wind4 mph E
Humidity54%
Visibility—
Dew point44°
Wed, 2870° / 49°0
70 °
Lake Frederick, Wednesday, 28 October
Overcast. High 70°, low 49°.
Pressure30.30 inHg
Wind5.4 mph SE
Humidity59%
Visibility—
Dew point47°
Thu, 2970° / 53°0.01
70 °
Lake Frederick, Thursday, 29 October
Light rain. High 70°, low 53°.
Pressure30.12 inHg
Wind6.2 mph NW
Humidity65%
Visibility—
Dew point51°
Fri, 3070° / 57°0
70 °
Lake Frederick, Friday, 30 October
Overcast. High 70°, low 57°.
Pressure30.21 inHg
Wind5.5 mph SE
Humidity80%
Visibility—
Dew point55°
Sat, 3176° / 55°0
76 °
Lake Frederick, Saturday, 31 October
Overcast. High 76°, low 55°.
Pressure30.12 inHg
Wind8.4 mph S
Humidity67%
Visibility—
Dew point55°
Sun, 0175° / 59°0.06
75 °
Lake Frederick, Sunday, 1 November
Light rain. High 75°, low 59°.
Pressure30.06 inHg
Wind5.7 mph SW
Humidity69%
Visibility—
Dew point60°
From day 17 onward the outlook is built from 60-year climate statistics
Mon, 0261° / 44°0.14
61 °
Lake Frederick, Monday, 2 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high61°
Average low44°
Average precipitation0.14 in
Chance of precipitation35%
Record high80° (1971)
Record low28° (2023)
Tue, 0360° / 43°0.07
60 °
Lake Frederick, Tuesday, 3 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high60°
Average low43°
Average precipitation0.07 in
Chance of precipitation28%
Record high78° (2003)
Record low31° (2006)
Wed, 0458° / 41°0.1
58 °
Lake Frederick, Wednesday, 4 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high58°
Average low41°
Average precipitation0.1 in
Chance of precipitation20%
Record high77° (1987)
Record low26° (2006)
Thu, 0558° / 42°0.1
58 °
Lake Frederick, Thursday, 5 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high58°
Average low42°
Average precipitation0.1 in
Chance of precipitation25%
Record high77° (1961)
Record low25° (1991)
Fri, 0658° / 42°0.06
58 °
Lake Frederick, Friday, 6 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high58°
Average low42°
Average precipitation0.06 in
Chance of precipitation23%
Record high80° (2024)
Record low26° (1967)
Sat, 0756° / 41°0.11
56 °
Lake Frederick, Saturday, 7 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high56°
Average low41°
Average precipitation0.11 in
Chance of precipitation25%
Record high74° (2022)
Record low27° (1962)
Sun, 0856° / 40°0.13
56 °
Lake Frederick, Sunday, 8 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high56°
Average low40°
Average precipitation0.13 in
Chance of precipitation20%
Record high75° (1975)
Record low26° (1960)
Mon, 0957° / 40°0.06
57 °
Lake Frederick, Monday, 9 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high57°
Average low40°
Average precipitation0.06 in
Chance of precipitation27%
Record high76° (2023)
Record low24° (2019)
Tue, 1056° / 40°0.14
56 °
Lake Frederick, Tuesday, 10 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high56°
Average low40°
Average precipitation0.14 in
Chance of precipitation28%
Record high75° (2020)
Record low26° (2003)
Wed, 1155° / 39°0.14
55 °
Lake Frederick, Wednesday, 11 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high55°
Average low39°
Average precipitation0.14 in
Chance of precipitation30%
Record high73° (2006)
Record low20° (2017)
Thu, 1253° / 38°0.2
53 °
Lake Frederick, Thursday, 12 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high53°
Average low38°
Average precipitation0.2 in
Chance of precipitation33%
Record high72° (1964)
Record low26° (1987)
Fri, 1352° / 37°0.07
52 °
Lake Frederick, Friday, 13 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high52°
Average low37°
Average precipitation0.07 in
Chance of precipitation33%
Record high69° (1964)
Record low21° (2019)
Sat, 1453° / 37°0.06
53 °
Lake Frederick, Saturday, 14 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high53°
Average low37°
Average precipitation0.06 in
Chance of precipitation17%
Record high74° (1993)
Record low22° (1986)
Sun, 1554° / 37°0.1
54 °
Lake Frederick, Sunday, 15 November
Climate normal for this date — 60-year average.
Average high54°
Average low37°
Average precipitation0.1 in
Chance of precipitation30%
Record high75° (1973)
Record low24° (1996)
About the monthly outlook
How accurate is a 30-day forecast?
The first 16 days come from weather models — reliable for the first 3–5 days and progressively less so after that. Days 17 through 30 for Lake Frederick, VA are built from the climate normal, the 60-year average, so they show typical weather for those dates rather than a specific forecast.
What does "above normal" mean?
We compare the forecast against the climate normal for those exact calendar days, computed from 60 years of observations. The deviation shows how much the coming month differs from a typical one.
Where do the 66-year records come from?
They are real temperature extremes recorded in Lake Frederick, VA since 1960: the highest and lowest reading for each calendar date, with the year it happened.
How often is it updated?
The forecast portion refreshes every hour; the climate portion is based on long-term data and stays stable.